How Professional NBA Basketball Exotics Work
In sports betting, an exotic is basically any bet that is not a single game point spread, moneyline or over/under bet. Exotics include props (propositions), parlays, futures and more. Exotics are enticing wagers to make because they either get your interest because they allow you to wager on something unusual and/or they give you a high payout.
In other articles, we looked at NBA futures and betting strategies as they relate to your picking which team will win the championship. We also considered parlays. In this piece, we will consider specific player props.
A prop is a wager that focuses on a specific “for instance” or proposition. Some props involve analysis while others simply ask you to guess the outcome. Here are a few player propositions for the 2010-2011 NBA season.
Shaquille and Jermaine O’Neal
The three props pictured below focus on the average output of Shaquille O’Neal in terms of points and rebounds. The first two concern Shaq, while the third relates to the potential output of Shaq and Jermaine O’Neal, two of the newest Celtics.
Concerning Shaquille O’Neal’s average points per game, you are asked to pick the over/under. You will have to bet $115 to win $100. O’Neal has never averaged less than 12 PPG and thus the over at 10 ½ looks like a solid bet.
However, there are a few things to consider before betting on this prop. The first is Shaq’s age as he’s starting to show it. Also, his tendency towards injury makes this a risky bet. Finally, and maybe most important, is the fact that Shaq is going to a new team that’s loaded with talent. He may certainly see diminished minutes and that could put a crimp in his ability to average more than 10 ½ PPG. This bet is not as easy as it might first appear to be.
There is also a prop offered on Shaq’s average rebounds per game. You get even money on him averaging over 6 ½ rebounds and have to bet $130 to get $100 back on him being under. Once again, the over looks good on this one; however, the same concerns as expressed regarding the previous bet also apply to this one.
The third prop may be the hardest of the three. Who’s going to average more points per game playing for the Celtics in 2010? Shaq is at +1 ½ and you’d have to bet $105 to win $100. Jermaine O’Neal is favored at -1 ½ and the risk is $125 to make a $100 profit.
Both are aging players who have seen diminished output. Over the past few years both players have averaged around 13 points per game. Again, there’s the question of playing time and which player will be used the most. Jermaine O’Neal, who is younger, is favored. This is a very tough wager to make, because stats and the spread favor Shaq but potential playing time favors Jermaine O’Neal.
Rookie NBA Props
Below is an example of a sports betting rookie NBA prop for 2010-2011. You are given nine choices for Rookie of the Year.
John Wall is considered the favorite. Part of that has to do with the way in which he played in the NBA Summer League. He was the league standout, while Evan Turner, who is considered to be a better player, did not do well at all. DeMarcus Cousins also saw his stock rise with his stellar summer performance.
This type of prop is tough to hit due to the fact that unlike a game or over/under bet, where you are given two choices, you are asked to choose between six players. The odds help but with Wall, Turner and Cousins all having enough talent and skill to make the grade, this is a very difficult wager to get right.
Sports Betting Smarts
Use your sports betting smarts with any prop and especially these. Do not throw a lot of money at these risky bets and stay away from the ones you simply cannot figure out.